A year ago we rolled out the annual version of s Magic Eight—a pool of eight teams from which that spring’s men’s national title winner will come—but for the first time since its inception, there was no outcome. The NCAA tournaments were canceled, leaving everyone to wonder what would’ve been, and the Magic Eight with no way to be validated or not. So I’m back this year with another try.
For all the madness of March, the last few champs actually haven’t been all that dramatic. A No. 1 seed has won the last three national titles, and four of the last five (the other was a No. 2 seed). In fact, since 2000, 14 of 20 champs have been a No. 1 seed, and 19 of 20 have been a No. 1, 2 or 3 seed (the lone exception was 2013–14 UConn, a No. 7 seed that broke several “rules” on what the profile of a modern champ looks like.
Nevertheless, there are indeed “rules,” and these rules hold up a vast majority of the time. This century, a men’s national champ is generally elite on at least one end of the floor (while being no slouch on the other), not overly reliant on the three (unless you’re 2017–18 Villanova) and strong on the interior defensively. This year two teams have clearly earned the status of cream of the crop (more on them below). But they wouldn’t be the first heavy favorites to stumble under the Big Dance’s bright lights.
The Magic Eight has rules as well. At least two of the top eight teams in the current men’s AP Top 25 poll must be excluded, and at least one selection must come from outside the poll’s top 15. After all, what are predictions without a little spice?